Could "Eclipse" actually make less than "New Moon"?

One of the films expected to battle for the summer box office crown or at least place in the top five is the third "Twilight" feature, "The Twilight Saga: Eclipse." The second installment, "New Moon," broke the single day all-time opening record with $72 million, is currently the third biggest 3-day opening of all time with $142 million and ended up with $296 million domestic and $707 million worldwide. And that was all in November when many of the franchise's younger fans had school on Friday (although let's assume many of them cut out early). "Eclipse's" June 30 release should find those young tween girls out of school and flocking to the theater. Adding more intrigue to the box office gross is that "Eclipse" will also be released in IMAX theaters which feature higher ticket prices. So, a larger opening weekend is guaranteed right? No doubt, but what happens after that?

Part of the reason "New Moon" grossed so much was that non-fans interested in the pop culture phenomenon and who hadn't even seen "Twilight" hit the multiplex to check it out. And yes, a lot of boyfriends were dragged along too. Will those moviegoers be as eager to return for another go around? Or, even taking the more lucrative summer season into effect, could "Eclipse" be blinded by a somewhat lower gross than "New Moon"? One thing's for sure, if "Eclipse's" reviews are stronger than "New Moon's" it shouldn't be a problem. If they are worse? Watch out.

"The Twilight Saga: Eclipse" opens nationwide and in IMAX on June 30.

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